Funny thing is I've had this gut feeling for a while. Adding up estimates rarely work when you end up with more than a few tasks. Instead, figure out which tasks have the highest uncertainty – those tasks are basically going to dominate the mean time to completion.

URL:
https://erikbern.com/2019/04/15/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model.html#
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